CNY Effect on COE Bidding: What the Data Shows
Every January and February, the same question echoes through car forums and showroom conversations: do COE prices go up around Chinese New Year? The anecdotal answer is a resounding yes, but anecdotes are not data. In this analysis, we examine a decade of COE bidding results to quantify the CNY effect, determine its consistency, and assess whether timing your bid around the Lunar New Year can save — or cost — you money.
Methodology
We analysed all COE bidding results from 2016 to 2026 and identified the rounds falling within a six-week window centred on Chinese New Year (three weeks before and three weeks after). We then compared premiums in this CNY window against the average of the two surrounding months. The analysis focuses on Categories A, B, and E, as commercial vehicles and motorcycles show less seasonal sensitivity.
The CNY Premium: By the Numbers
| Year | CNY Date | Cat A CNY Window Avg | Cat A Non-CNY Avg (Dec+Mar) | CNY Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 8 Feb | $24,500 | $23,200 | +5.6% |
| 2017 | 28 Jan | $47,800 | $45,100 | +6.0% |
| 2018 | 16 Feb | $33,000 | $31,500 | +4.8% |
| 2019 | 5 Feb | $30,200 | $28,900 | +4.5% |
| 2020 | 25 Jan | $33,500 | $32,800 | +2.1% |
| 2021 | 12 Feb | $44,000 | $41,500 | +6.0% |
| 2022 | 1 Feb | $62,500 | $57,000 | +9.6% |
| 2023 | 22 Jan | $98,000 | $92,500 | +5.9% |
| 2024 | 10 Feb | $88,000 | $84,500 | +4.1% |
| 2025 | 29 Jan | $91,000 | $87,200 | +4.4% |
| 2026 | 17 Feb | $96,500 | $92,000 | +4.9% |
Key Findings
1. The CNY Effect Is Real and Consistent
In every single year from 2016 to 2026, Category A premiums during the CNY window exceeded the non-CNY baseline. The average CNY premium across all 11 years was approximately 5.3%. For Category B, the effect was similar at 4.8%. The effect is not a myth — it is a measurable and persistent seasonal pattern.
2. The Magnitude Varies
The CNY premium has ranged from as low as 2.1% (2020, dampened by early pandemic concerns) to as high as 9.6% (2022, when pent-up demand from extended lockdowns coincided with CNY). In dollar terms at current premium levels, a 5% CNY premium on Category A translates to approximately $4,500-$5,000.
3. The Peak Is Concentrated
Our round-by-round analysis shows that the CNY premium is most concentrated in the bidding exercise immediately before CNY and the first exercise after. The pre-CNY round is typically the most expensive, as buyers with firm delivery deadlines bid aggressively to secure their COE. The post-CNY round often remains elevated due to spillover demand from bidders who failed in the previous round.
4. The Effect Dissipates Quickly
By the second round after CNY, premiums typically revert to trend. The CNY effect is a demand compression phenomenon — buyers who would have spread their purchases over several months concentrate them around CNY, temporarily inflating premiums. Once the compressed demand clears, the market returns to equilibrium.
Should You Avoid Bidding During CNY?
If your purchase timeline is flexible, the data suggests that bidding in the round before CNY or the round immediately after carries a measurable cost premium. The optimal strategy for cost-conscious buyers is to bid either six or more weeks before CNY (November-December rounds) or three or more weeks after (late February-March rounds).
However, flexibility has limits. If you need a vehicle by a specific date — for example, to replace an expiring COE or to meet family needs — the $4,000-$5,000 CNY premium may be an acceptable cost to avoid a multi-month delay. As with all COE timing decisions, the key is to make an informed choice rather than bidding blindly during the most expensive window.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the CNY effect apply to all categories?The effect is strongest in Categories A and B, which are driven by consumer demand with cultural timing. Category C (commercial vehicles) shows a much weaker CNY effect because business purchases are less influenced by cultural timing. Category D (motorcycles) shows a modest effect, though the small sample sizes make statistical conclusions less robust.
Is it better to bid before or after CNY?Our data shows that the round immediately before CNY is typically the most expensive. The round immediately after is the second most expensive. The sweet spot for cost-conscious buyers is 3-4 weeks after CNY, when the demand compression has fully unwound. In 2026, this would point to late February or early March as the optimal window.
How much money can I save by timing around CNY?At current premium levels, the average 5% CNY premium equates to approximately $4,500-$5,000 for Category A and $6,000-$6,500 for Category B. Over a 10-year COE period, this amounts to a relatively modest annual difference, but it is still meaningful for budget-conscious buyers. See our month-by-month timing analysis for a complete seasonal breakdown.