COE Price Predictions: What History Tells Us About the Next 5 Years

Predicting the Unpredictable

COE prices are notoriously difficult to predict. They sit at the intersection of government policy, global economics, consumer sentiment, technological disruption, and mechanical quota formulas — all of which can shift rapidly and in unexpected directions. Anyone who claims to know where Cat A premiums will be in 2030 is guessing, and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.

But history does provide patterns, and structural analysis can narrow the range of plausible outcomes. What follows are three scenarios for COE prices over the next five years, grounded in real data and current policy settings. They are not predictions — they are frameworks for thinking about the future. Think you have a better read on the market? Test your instincts with our COE Prediction Game and see how your forecasts compare to the crowd.

Where We Stand: The March 2026 Baseline

Before looking forward, let us anchor ourselves in the present. As of March 2026:

• Cat A: $111,890 — elevated but below the 2023 peak of ~$110,000-$115,000 for most of that year
• Cat B: $115,568 — steady in the mid-$110K range
• Cat C: $78,000 — goods vehicles remain tight
• Cat D: $9,589 — motorcycles relatively stable
• Cat E: $118,119 — maintaining its traditional premium over Cat B

Several structural factors are actively shaping the market:

• The 20,000 additional COEs being injected from February 2025 are beginning to flow through the system
• EV adoption has reached 45.6% of Cat A registrations (January-September 2025), fundamentally reshaping demand in that category
• A category review was announced by Transport Minister Jeffrey Siow in March 2026, introducing policy uncertainty
• The quota formula (rolling average of deregistrations over the previous 4 quarters, since February 2023) means supply responds to deregistration trends with a lag
• Vehicle growth rates remain at 0% for Cat A, B, and D, with only Cat C receiving a 0.25% growth allowance

Explore the full historical context on our trends page.

Scenario 1: The Soft Landing

Estimated probability: 25%

Cat A by 2030: $65,000-$85,000

Cat B by 2030: $70,000-$90,000

In this scenario, multiple factors align to gradually ease premiums back toward pre-pandemic norms, adjusted for inflation. It is the most optimistic plausible outcome, and it requires several things to go right simultaneously.

The Bull Case for Lower Prices

The 20,000 additional COEs injected from February 2025 represent the most significant supply-side intervention in years. If these certificates are distributed evenly across categories and sustained beyond the initial injection period, they could add 2,000-2,500 certificates per quarter to each car category. That is a meaningful increase — roughly 15-20% above the quota levels prevailing in late 2024.

On the demand side, the EV adoption S-curve may begin to flatten. The early adopters and fast followers have already switched. The remaining car-buying population includes people who cannot install home charging (HDB residents without reliable charger access), those who need vehicles for long-distance regional travel, and those who simply prefer internal combustion engines. As the low-hanging fruit is exhausted, the incremental demand pressure from EVs in Cat A could stabilise.

A deregistration wave is also approaching. Vehicles purchased in 2017-2019, when Cat A premiums were $30,000-$45,000, will reach their 10-year COE expiry between 2027 and 2029. These owners face a choice: renew at the prevailing PQP (currently above $100,000 for Cat A) or deregister. Many will find renewal uneconomical, especially if their vehicle's market value does not justify a six-figure COE renewal. A wave of deregistrations would feed directly into higher future quotas.

Finally, a mild global recession in 2027-2028 — which many economists consider probable given the current interest rate environment — would dampen consumer spending and reduce the number of buyers willing to pay premium prices for a car.

Why This Scenario Is Only 25% Likely

History suggests that COE prices rarely decline gradually. The system's pro-cyclical design means that as prices fall, deregistrations slow (owners see less reason to scrap), which reduces future quotas, which puts a floor under prices. Achieving a sustained decline to $65,000-$85,000 would require multiple easing factors to persist simultaneously for several years — a combination that has not occurred in the post-2010 era.

Scenario 2: The New Plateau

Estimated probability: 50%

Cat A by 2030: $90,000-$125,000

Cat B by 2030: $95,000-$130,000

The most likely outcome is that COE premiums oscillate around current levels for the foreseeable future, with cyclical swings of 10-20% but no fundamental break in either direction. This is essentially the status quo, sustained.

The Case for Persistence

Singapore's vehicle population policy is explicitly designed to constrain growth. The 0% growth rate for Cat A and B means that the only source of new certificates is deregistrations. As long as deregistrations remain at current levels — and the PQP renewal mechanism gives owners a strong incentive to hold onto their vehicles — quotas will remain structurally tight.

Population growth continues to add demand. Singapore's resident population grows by 30,000-50,000 annually, and while not every new resident wants a car, the incremental demand is persistent. Combined with rising household incomes and the growing perception that car ownership is increasingly a luxury good (which paradoxically increases its desirability for some buyers), demand is unlikely to collapse.

The EV transition, rather than easing prices, may sustain them. With 40.2% of all new car sales being EVs as of Q1 2025, and BYD alone contributing 2,183 units that quarter, the electrification of the fleet creates ongoing demand for Cat A certificates. Crucially, at least 15 of the 38 Cat A EV models also have Cat B versions but are power-tuned for Cat A — suggesting that manufacturers are deliberately targeting the Cat A segment to offer lower total ownership costs. This trend is unlikely to reverse.

The PQP floor effect is also significant. When PQP values are high (as they are now), COE renewal becomes expensive, which should in theory encourage deregistrations and boost quotas. But in practice, many owners find that replacing their car (new COE + new vehicle cost) is even more expensive than renewing, so they renew anyway. This dampens the deregistration-to-quota pipeline.

Cyclical Swings Within the Plateau

Even within this scenario, expect significant volatility. Quarterly quota adjustments, policy signals, and sentiment shifts can produce $15,000-$20,000 swings within a single year. The difference between a January low and a September high could easily span $10,000-$15,000, as our seasonal analysis demonstrates. The plateau is not a flat line — it is a range with considerable noise.

Scenario 3: The Surge

Estimated probability: 25%

Cat A by 2030: $140,000-$180,000

Cat B by 2030: $150,000-$200,000

In this scenario, demand accelerators overpower the additional supply, pushing premiums to levels that make the 2023 peaks look moderate. It requires only two or three of the following factors to materialise.

Demand Accelerators

The EV revolution could enter a new phase. If a major new brand — Xiaomi's automotive division, a hypothetical Apple Car, or an aggressive new Chinese entrant — launches affordable, compelling EVs that dramatically expand the buyer pool, Cat A competition would intensify further. Remember that EVs already constitute 45.6% of Cat A registrations. A push to 60-70% would mean a larger total pool of buyers competing for the same limited certificates.

Rising wealth inequality could also drive prices higher. Singapore's Gini coefficient has remained stubbornly high, and the top income decile has seen significantly faster wage growth than the median. As a larger segment of the population becomes relatively price-insensitive to COE premiums, the effective demand curve shifts upward. When a buyer earning $500,000 per year competes with a buyer earning $100,000 per year for the same certificate, the wealthier buyer's willingness to pay sets the clearing price.

Deregistrations could slow further if owners increasingly choose to renew at PQP rather than scrap. If renewal rates climb from the current ~40% to 50% or higher, the quota pipeline would contract meaningfully, even with the additional 20,000 COE injection. The injection is temporary; the structural slowing of deregistrations would be permanent.

The Policy Wildcard

The government has historically intervened when premiums reach socially unacceptable levels. Additional COE injections, loan tightening, or demand-side cooling measures (higher ARF tiers, reduced loan-to-value ratios) are all available tools. The surge scenario assumes that either the government does not intervene, or that its interventions prove insufficient against the structural demand forces. Given Singapore's track record of pragmatic policy adjustment, this is the main reason the surge scenario is capped at 25% probability.

The Category Review Wildcard

Transport Minister Jeffrey Siow's March 2026 announcement of a category review introduces a variable that cuts across all three scenarios. Depending on the outcome, a category review could:

• Split Cat A by powertrain: Creating separate EV and ICE sub-categories would redistribute demand. EV-only Cat A might see higher premiums (concentrated demand, limited quota), while ICE-only Cat A might see lower premiums (shrinking demand base). The net effect is ambiguous
• Raise the Cat A power threshold: If the 130 bhp limit is increased (to account for the fact that modern EVs naturally produce more power), some vehicles currently in Cat B would shift to Cat A, increasing Cat A competition but relieving Cat B
• Create a new category: A hypothetical Cat F for electric vehicles, or merging Cat A and B into a single car category with a larger combined quota, would fundamentally alter the competitive dynamics
• Adjust Cat E allocation: Changing the 10% redistribution rule — either increasing or decreasing Cat E's share — would directly impact the Open Category premium

Until the review's outcome is known, it represents pure uncertainty. This is one reason we assign higher probability to the plateau scenario: in the absence of clear policy direction, markets tend to continue doing what they have been doing.

The 20,000 COE Injection: Temporary Relief or Structural Shift?

The 20,000 additional COEs being injected from February 2025 deserve careful analysis. On one hand, they represent significant new supply — roughly 5,000 additional certificates per quarter if distributed evenly, or approximately 800 per exercise. That is a meaningful increase that should ease competition.

On the other hand, the injection is widely understood to be temporary. If the market prices in the expectation that quotas will revert to pre-injection levels once the 20,000 are exhausted, the price impact could be muted. Buyers and dealers might reason that any temporary dip is a buying opportunity, front-loading demand and partially offsetting the supply increase. Track the injection's real-time impact on our Quota Watch page.

Key Variables to Watch

Regardless of which scenario unfolds, monitoring the right indicators will help you stay ahead of price movements:

• Quarterly quota announcements: The single most important leading indicator. Track them on our Quota Watch page
• Monthly deregistration numbers: These feed directly into future quotas with a 1-4 quarter lag. Rising deregistrations signal future supply increases; falling deregistrations signal tightening
• Bid ratios: When ratios exceed 3.0 across multiple categories simultaneously, a price surge may be building. Sustained ratios below 1.5 suggest easing. Check the latest on our results page
• EV registration share: If EV adoption accelerates beyond current trends, Cat A demand will intensify further. The quarterly EV registration data from LTA is the authoritative source
• Government policy signals: Any mention of vehicle growth rate changes, category restructuring outcomes, ARF adjustments, or loan restrictions from the Ministry of Transport or LTA. The OneMotoring portal publishes official announcements
• PQP renewal rates: If the percentage of COE holders choosing to renew at PQP rises above 45%, the quota squeeze will intensify regardless of other factors. Our PQP tracker monitors the latest prevailing quota premiums

What History Actually Teaches Us

Looking at the full 24-year price history, one pattern stands out above all others: every period of stable prices has been followed by a sharp move in one direction. The stability of 2004-2007 (Cat A around $10,000-$15,000) was followed by a crash to near-zero in 2009. The stability of 2017-2019 (Cat A around $30,000-$45,000) was followed by the COVID-era surge to $100,000+. Equilibrium in the COE market is temporary — the only question is when the next structural break occurs and in which direction.

This is the strongest argument for the plateau scenario being the most likely near-term outcome, even as we acknowledge that a structural break will eventually come. Markets can remain in a trading range for years before the trigger arrives.

Practical Implications for Buyers

If you are trying to decide when to buy a car over the next five years, here is what the scenario analysis suggests:

• Do not wait for a crash: The soft landing scenario assigns only 25% probability to a meaningful decline, and even that "decline" puts Cat A at $65,000-$85,000 — still historically elevated. Deferring a needed purchase for years in hopes of lower prices is a high-risk gamble
• Budget for the plateau: The most prudent financial planning assumes that Cat A premiums will remain in the $90,000-$125,000 range. If prices fall below that, treat it as a bonus. Use our Total Cost Calculator to understand what these premiums mean for your monthly budget
• Watch for temporary dips: Within the plateau scenario, dips of 10-15% occur regularly — typically in February, during economic uncertainty, or immediately after quota increases. Set price alerts and be ready to act when a dip materialises
• Factor in total cost, not just COE: A $10,000 COE saving is meaningful, but it may be offset by changes in ARF, dealer margins, insurance costs, or interest rates. The Total Cost Calculator captures all of these variables
• Do not time the category review: The outcome and timing of the March 2026 category review are unknown. Making a purchasing decision based on speculated review outcomes is pure guesswork

Final Thought

The honest answer to "where will COE prices be in 2030?" is: nobody knows. The range of plausible outcomes spans from $65,000 to $180,000 for Cat A — a factor of nearly 3x. What we can say with more confidence is that the structural forces supporting high premiums (tight quotas, strong demand, EV transition) are more firmly established than the forces that could bring them down (additional supply, economic slowdown, policy intervention).

The wisest approach is not to predict, but to prepare. Understand the scenarios, monitor the leading indicators, and make your move when the price is within your personal budget — regardless of whether the market has further to fall or is about to surge. For answers to common questions about the COE system and its mechanics, visit our FAQ page.