Year-End COE Rush: Should You Bid in December?
The December COE rush is one of the most predictable patterns in Singapore's automotive calendar. Dealers push to hit annual sales targets, buyers want new cars for the new year, and the compressed timeline between the last bidding exercises and the holiday period creates urgency. But is December actually more expensive for COE, and if so, by how much? This analysis examines the data and offers guidance for prospective buyers.
December Premiums: Historical Data
We examined December COE premiums for Category A across the past eight years and compared them to the full-year average for each respective year:
| Year | December Avg Premium (Cat A) | Full-Year Avg | December Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $28,500 | $29,800 | -4.4% |
| 2019 | $32,000 | $30,200 | +6.0% |
| 2020 | $33,200 | $33,100 | +0.3% |
| 2021 | $52,000 | $46,200 | +12.6% |
| 2022 | $76,000 | $68,500 | +11.0% |
| 2023 | $92,000 | $96,800 | -5.0% |
| 2024 | $87,000 | $86,500 | +0.6% |
| 2025 | $93,000 | $90,200 | +3.1% |
The data reveals that December is more expensive than average in most years, but not overwhelmingly so. The exceptions (2018 and 2023) coincided with broader market downtrends where year-end did not produce the usual demand spike. In years with rising or stable markets, the December premium typically ranges from 3% to 12% above the annual average.
What Drives the Year-End Rush
- Dealer incentives: Dealers offer year-end discounts and promotions to hit annual sales targets, which stimulates demand. Ironically, the dealer discounts are partially offset by higher COE premiums.
- Registration deadlines: Some buyers want their vehicle registered in the current calendar year for personal or tax reasons.
- New Year psychology: The desire for a fresh start with a new car in the new year is a powerful motivator, particularly for families.
- Bonus season: December coincides with year-end bonus payments, giving buyers additional financial capacity.
Should You Bid in December?
The answer depends on your priorities. If you are primarily price-sensitive, waiting until January or February (post-CNY) typically offers modest savings. If you value dealer promotions and want your car by January, bidding in December can make sense — just budget for a 5-8% premium over the typical mid-year price.
One often-overlooked strategy: bid in the last round of November. This round benefits from the tail end of quieter mid-quarter trading while still allowing enough time for vehicle preparation and registration by year-end. It is a sweet spot that many savvy buyers target.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is January always cheaper than December?Not always. January can carry over December's momentum, particularly in the first round. Additionally, if new quarterly quotas are tighter in Q1, January premiums may not decline as expected. The safest window for lower premiums is typically late February to March, after the CNY effect has dissipated.
Do dealer discounts offset higher December COE?Partially. Dealer year-end discounts of $3,000-$8,000 can offset some of the COE premium, but the net effect depends on the specific vehicle and dealer. Always compare the total cost — vehicle price plus COE — rather than looking at either component in isolation.
What about the last exercise of the year specifically?The final bidding exercise of December is often the most expensive of the month, as it is the last opportunity for year-end registration. If you must bid in December, the first round of the month is typically cheaper than the second.